Western Cape Crime: What the Data Reveals
Over a decade of SAPS data across 152 precincts — patterns, shifts, and surprises
The COVID Recovery Story
How did crime bounce back after lockdowns?
COVID lockdowns caused the single biggest crime drop in recorded Western Cape history. But the recovery has been uneven. 49% of all precincts are still below their pre-COVID crime levels.
29%
Exceeded pre-COVID levels
44 precincts
22%
Recovered to pre-COVID levels
33 precincts
49%
Still below pre-COVID levels
74 precincts
Biggest overshoot
Vredendal surged +59.1% above pre-COVID levels
Biggest improvement
Cloetesville dropped -49.5% and kept falling
Recovery by district
Drill down into each district
Source: SAPS quarterly crime statistics, comparing 2019-2020 to 2022-2023 financial years. 151 precincts with complete data for both periods.
Crime Type Shifts
Crime isn't just changing in volume — it's changing in type
While total crime dropped, the composition of crime shifted dramatically. Kidnapping rose 48%, carjacking 37%, and rape 16%. Meanwhile, robbery of cash in transit fell 44% and driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs dropped 42%. The data shows a notable shift away from property crime toward violent crime categories.
Rising
Falling
Property vs violent crime — the gap is closing
The property-to-violent ratio collapsed from 0.81:1 to 0.59:1 in five years
2018-2019
2019-2020
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
Inverse trends: burglary down, robbery up
In 25 precincts, burglary decreased over 15% while robbery increased over 15% — a pattern worth monitoring.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, all 152 Western Cape precincts, 2018-2019 vs 2022-2023 financial years. Rising/falling crime categories use City of Cape Town data (63 precincts).
Hidden Gems & Warning Signs
Who's getting better, who's getting worse?
The majority of precincts show a downward crime trajectory over 5 years. Only 6 are consistently worsening. Here are the standouts in both directions.
Top 10 consistent improvers
| Precinct | Decline streak | Avg. yearly drop |
|---|---|---|
| Kirstenhof | 8 years | -11.2% |
| Kleinmond | 6 years | -8% |
| Elands Bay | 5 years | -12.1% |
| Hout Bay | 5 years | -7.9% |
| Mbekweni | 4 years | -11.1% |
| Cloetesville | 3 years | -20.3% |
| Plettenberg Bay | 3 years | -9% |
| Montagu | 3 years | -2.8% |
6 precincts consistently worsening
| Precinct | Increase streak | Avg. yearly rise |
|---|---|---|
| Samora Machel | 4 years | +50.5% |
| Vredendal | 3 years | +17% |
| Napier | 3 years | +11.1% |
| Prince Albert | 3 years | +9.3% |
| Riviersonderend | 3 years | +7.9% |
| Klawer | 3 years | +7% |
Biggest warning sign: Samora Machel
Samora Machel has averaged +51% annual crime growth over 4 consecutive years of increase — the most sustained worsening trend in the province.
4 distinct crime profiles
Cluster analysis of 63 City of Cape Town precincts reveals four distinct crime personality types.
High property crime areas
13 precinctsProperty crime categories such as theft from vehicles and burglary dominate, with relatively low violent crime.
Assault-dominant precincts
43 precinctsAssault is the most reported category, with drug-related crime also prominent. Mostly smaller towns.
Drug-dominated precincts
3 precinctsDrug crime accounts for 42%+ of all reported offences. Often suburban or coastal areas.
High violent crime precincts
3 precinctsAssault and robbery make up the largest share of reported crime in these precincts.
Source: Year-on-year change analysis, 2019-2023 complete financial years. Crime profiles based on K-means clustering of per-capita crime rates across 63 City of Cape Town precincts.
The Trend Surprises
High-crime areas improving, low-crime areas worsening — the trends defy expectations
Some of the Western Cape's highest-crime precincts are showing the biggest improvements, while several traditionally quiet areas are seeing sharp increases. The data challenges assumptions about which areas are getting safer.
High-crime areas improving
Surprising movers
Khayelitsha — a Very High crime precinct — saw crime drop 15.5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, historically quiet Laaiplek (Very Low crime) surged +40%.
Source: SAPS crime statistics, year-on-year change 2025-2026 vs 2024-2025. "High-crime" = precincts classified as High or Very High crime volume (top 40%). "Low-crime" = precincts classified as Very Low or Low (bottom 40%).
What Correlates With What?
Statistical relationships between crime categories
Not all crime types move together. When one crime rises in a precinct, does another rise too? A strong link means they tend to increase together. A weak or negative link means they move independently or in opposite directions.
Key finding
The strongest correlation is between burglary and vehicle theft (r=0.71). Precincts with high Burglary rates tend to have high Vehicle theft rates. The weakest link? DUI and Murder (r=-0.12) — higher DUI precincts do not tend to have higher Murder rates.
Source: Pearson correlation analysis of per-capita crime rates across 63 City of Cape Town precincts, 2022-2023 financial year. Significance at p<0.01.
Explore individual precincts
Search for any suburb or precinct to see its full crime statistics
Data Sources & Methodology
- Crime data: SAPS quarterly crime statistics (2013-2025), publicly available at saps.gov.za
- Population data: City of Cape Town Census 2022 Police Precinct Profiles (63 CT precincts); Stats SA Census 2022 Municipal Factsheet (remaining precincts)
- Per-capita rates calculated only for CT precincts with official precinct-level population data
- All year-on-year comparisons use complete 4-quarter financial years unless otherwise noted
- Correlation analysis uses Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients
- SAPS data reflects reported crime only. Under-reporting varies by area and crime type.
- This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for safety or property decisions. Full disclaimer
- Full methodology →